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RVC discussed prospects for further country development until 2030 at the Krasnoyarsk economic forum (KEF)

24.02.2016

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RVC participated in the Krasnoyarsk economic forum which was held from 19 to 20 February with assistance of the Government of the Russian Federation. A key issue of the forum was discussion of priorities of the future Strategy of social and economic development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030. The KEF platforms were visited by more than six thousand people from 28 countries of the world and from 60 regions of Russia. RVC helped to arrange a number of expert discussions and brainstorms: including those related to the prospects for world technological development, role of regions in implementation of the National technological initiative, and new challenges of 2035.

A session of panel discussion "Technological development. Status of world technologies in 2030. How technologies will change Russia?" was held on the first day of forum, with its moderator Igor Agamirzyan, CEO of RVC. The following persons have also taken part in the discussion: Alexander Galitsky, partner of Almaz Capital Partners, Alexey Komissarov, Director of Fund of development of the industry, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Deputy CEO and Program Director of RVC, Boris Ryabov, leader of the EnergyNet NTI working group and managing partner of Bright Capital, Alexander Chulok, Deputy Director of the Foresight Center of Higher School of Economics and National Research University.

According to the Head of RVC, the main trends of technology development are the fundamental factor for defining outlines of Strategy 2030:

Social and economic consequences, which will influence our life in the next 15–20 years, depend on how precisely we are able to define a technological landscape today.

Experts noted that prompt acceleration of innovative development has the greatest impact on certain countries, structure of world economy and humanity as a whole. Analysts recorded more than 150 trends which are capable to make considerable changes in operating conditions of all traditional branches within 10-15 years. In such conditions, it becomes more difficult for Russia to adapt the existing institutes, to regulate new hybrid and "fluid" sectors of economy and to react adequately on changes in the labour and human capital markets.

As Boris Ryabov noted,

the branch economy has ceased to exist, and now we found ourselves in the space of three new economies — knowledge economy, attention economy and reputation economy. Every person is a creator of the economic benefit in all three markets.

Alexander Chulok suggested that during the preparation of Strategy 2030 one needs, first of all, to agree about the system of basic technological prerequisites which influence competitiveness of our country in the long term.

It is necessary to identify all global challenges correctly and in due time in order to realize our capacities and get a feel for "windows of opportunities,said Alexander Chulok.

Alexander Galitsky told about challenges and threats we should rely upon. According to his forecast, in 50–70 years there will be 600 cities in the world where 90% of the planet population will live, and only 5-7% of people will eat natural food.

These are challenges. And with regard to our country, with a huge territory and large water reserves, for example, we need to talk about transition from mass agriculture to custom farming. It is a great opportunity for Russia, assured Galitsky.

Participants of the Forum paid much attention to development of the human capital as the main resource of the country and key factor of development of modern economy. Participants of this thematic track with Evgeny Kuznetsov as the expert discussed evolution of understanding of the human capital, modern trends and competitiveness of Russia in this area.

In his speech, Evgeny Kuznetsov formulated three world tendencies: growth in life expectancy, overintensive robotization of economy and redistribution of talents. Speaking about the first trend, participants noted that nowadays one sees a strong diversification among human population. There are an increasing number of older people in Europe and Japan, a half of the population is already over the age of 45, whereby Africa and the Middle East become the main "producers" of the population. Now the issue is that life expectancy will increase not by just 10-15 years, but by 30-40 years, and 120 years will become a new level, the “wear and tear” to our brain.

If robotization is developed intensively, the level of job losses in Russia, according to Kuznetsov, will make 66%. The structure of professions will also change. "Office monkeys", workers, builders will lose their jobs. Evgeny Kuznetsov assured that in such conditions continuous retraining of employees will become a key factor of humanity stability. The employees will need to retrain at least three times in their life. In fact, it turns education into an important branch of economy.

Russia is in the donors group, and we give more qualified personnel than we accept. In this situation, any attempt to invest into our education in isolation from investment to the country will lead to increase in migration of talents. We need to compete by quality of life and ecosystems, says Evgeny Kuznetsov.

On 20 February, the participants of plenary session argued on which actions need to be undertaken in the next years to come to the path of 2030. Leaders of thematic tracks of the previous day submitted offers of the working groups for Strategy 2030 and told about practical steps to be to be undertaken in the next years.

In his speech, Igor Agamirzyan listed the key technological areas providing the real chance for growth of economy in the long term of 2030.This is renewable power generation development of which will fundamentally and inevitably change the global energy balance. These are technologies of genetic engineering across the full range of industries and branches — from medicine to industrialization of food production. This is automation of processes, and not only in transport and municipal economy (smart cities), but also in all traditional branches.

Trends which we see nowadays in the field of production technologies will cause traditional industry to disappear and lead to the model of local distributed production, noted the CEO of RVC. It will be based on network communities and structures connected with emergence of new platform business models.

Igor Agamirzyan called encouragement of DIY culture connected with new technologies as one of the priority tasks.

We revealed that nowadays informal communities and makery become a driving force for development of both the industry and the education system, told the head of RVC. This movement in our country develops extremely actively. Russia in this sense is in a global trend: we witness the same processes as in the developed countries. Currently, it goes almost unnoticed at the state administration level, although these communities can add value to a lot of processes in economy.

The book "Challenge of 2035" which was prepared on the initiative of RVC was officially presented and discussed within a forum. Scenarios of influence of technological development on economy and society in Russia and the world in the long term until 2035, and a view of prospects of certain technological directions are presented in the book in the form of analytical articles and science-fiction stories.

Vasily Burov, the moderator of discussion and author of the book "Challenge of 2035" and the chairman of the WikiVote! board of directors noted that discussion of an image of the future come into the focus of Russian experts from time to time only, whereas it has to become a subject of their constant attention and task-oriented forecasting.

It is necessary to create a school of discussions about the future to make this process more system-related and the most important thing is that the project of the future is now appearing in Russia, describes Vasily Burov the goal of the book. In the whole world, especially in the developed countries, there is a tradition of design of the future. If we go all the time only in a waterway of someone else's future project, our own goals will stay aside.

On the second day, RVC arranged the plenary session "A role of regions in realization of a National technological initiative", in which representatives of NTI working groups, administrations of Krasnoyarsk and Samara regions participated. Evgeny Kuznetsov moderated this discussion.

Experts concluded that the conscious collaboration of the regions and all elements of innovative infrastructure which have been created in the country in recent years is essential for successful realization of NTI. The tests of new products and NTI technologies will be developed and conducted particularly in the regions before entering the international markets.

Evgeny Kuznetsov reminded that in many regions there are successfully developing technological companies of medium business, so-called "gazelles", the examples of which are the leaders of the TechUspekh rating created on the initiative of RVC. However, once the limits in a certain market niche are reached, these companies do not strive or are not able to make a quality leap for development of a competitive product, with which it they will be able to capture the world market in 10-15 years. NTI opens new windows of opportunities for such companies and their creative teams.

One of issues relating to realization of NTI which participants of discussion were speaking about is deficiency of qualified personnel. As estimated by RVC and ADJ, the need of NTI for engineers is 22 thousand people, and by 2035 it will reach 300 thousand. Dmitry Zemtsov, head of the working group on development of the road map "Club movement of NTI", called education at schools and higher education institutions, popularization of innovations, engineering specialties and entrepreneurship among youth, development of the out-of-school club movement as the direct competence and objective of the regions. As an example for encouragement of development of engineering creativity among youth, he called "Olympic Games NTI" which has recently started among pupils; winners and participants of these Games will receive privileges when passing entrance examinations to universities of Russia later on.

By summing up the discussion results, Evgeny Kuznetsov said:

If we want to survive the fourth industrial revolution, we can’t just limit ourselves to an update of the existing economy — we need to construct new economy and new institutes.



Information

About Krasnoyarsk economic forum

The Krasnoyarsk economic forum has been held since 2004 and is a discussion platform for discussion of issues relating to long-term development of Russia and regions. The exposition is devoted to the cities of Krasnoyarsk region and innovative developments of local enterprises — from small business to leaders of the Russian economy.

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